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Monday Morning Market Minute – September 5th, 2023

Real Estate Update – Mid Peninsula

Dan Gilmartin reviews the weekly home inventory numbers.

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Hi this is Dan Gilmartin, part of the Gilmartin Group, real estate company in Burlingame, California. September 5th 2023, with your post-Labor Day, Monday Morning Market Minute. I hope everybody had a nice day off yesterday. We certainly took the day off, and that’s why we’re doing it today on Tuesday.

Okay, single-family inventory from South San Francisco to Redwood City right now is 193. That’s up from 187 of last week. And 194 is the peak number for 2023 for single-family homes. So here we are at 193, just touching that, you know, rubbing up to that 194 number. Last year this time that number was 224 though. In 2021, 121. In 2020, 206. And in 2019, 162. And the 2018 number was 178. Again here we are at 193. We had 32 homes come on the market. Last week that number was 37. And we had 23 homes go into contract. Last week that number was 32. We like to see 40 in the past week in, week out. But you know, as I’ve been saying, you know, mid-40 or 30s and upper 30s is feeling to be a good number for 2023. So here we are at 23. Again, though going into the holiday weekend for Labor Day could be the reason that number is a little lower than we’d like to see. Certainly better than it being in the teens, of course. The average days on market though, this is good news, for the homes that did go into contract, 25 days. That’s actually an improvement from previous days on market activity that I’ve been talking about. Although 25 days is more than in the past in terms of more days on market. It’s more but still 25 days is a lot less than what we’ve had in the previous weeks.

Condominiums, townhomes right now we have 112 on the market. That is down, big, from 123 of last week. Last year this time, that number was 162. In 2021, 118. In 2021, 174. 2019, 75. And then 2018 number, 48. Again, here we are at 112. We had only 4 condos come on the market. Last week that number was 26. Again, that’s probably the Labor Day weekend conversation going on there. But here’s another good number, I mean it’s a teen, 13 condos, townhomes went into contract. Last week that number was 18. 18 is a good number for 2023. At least we’re in the teens here with 13.

The average days on market for those 13 that went into contract — this is good news too, way down from the high, we know, we saw 50, 70 days on market in the past — 26 and a half days for those 13 homes that went into contract. That’s better news that we’ve been hearing, than I’ve been reporting I should say, in weeks past.

We also had 14 homes either expire, cancel, withdraw from the marketplace. And 24 price reductions. Typically, this time of year that’s an average number if you look in years past. But it’s still kind of, it’s a high-number, but it is in line with years past.

So total-total, from South San Francisco to Redwood City, single-family homes, and condominiums, inventory is 305. That’s down from 310 of last week. So that’s very interesting. The peak number for total-total inventory for 2023 is 323. So here, although the single-family inventory’s up towards the peak of 2023, the total-total number is actually backing off. That’s very, very interesting, good news. I mean, at 305 in the market I’m talking about, that indicates a sellers market. Although days on market has expanded, and yet the inventory number is a sellers market, clearly shows that pricing, and getting help prepared to go on market now more than ever makes the big difference.

Moving forward, are we going to test that 323? In October, in years past, we have actually created a new peak in October. So is October going to deliver a higher inventory number? At 323 or 350 or, I’ll tell you what would be very big news, if we hit 400 or more in October. I don’t see it happening, but if we did, that would be a complete different story. Or are we going to continue to contract throughout the year? And if that’s the case, 2024 is gonna start out like Gang Busters.

Thanks for listening. Have a great day. And I’ll talk to you next week.

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