Real Estate Update – Mid Peninsula

Dan Gilmartin reviews the weekly home inventory numbers.

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Video Transcript

Hi, this is Dan Gilmartin, part of the Gilmartin Group Real Estate Company in Burlingame, California, September 20th 2021, with your Monday Morning Market Minute.

Okay, single-family inventory from South San Francisco to Redwood City right now is 158. That is up from 149 of last week. Last year at this time, that number was 236. In 2019, that number was 228. And in 2018, that number was 227. And here we are, 158. When we compare that to the 2018 number, you can see why the single-family market, home sale market on the mid-peninsula is so hot. We had 51 homes come on the market. That’s down from last week’s 61, which was a large number, but 51 is also considered a higher number. And we only had 34 homes go into contract. Last week, that number was 30. That’s three weeks in a row where we’ve had sales under the 40-number we like to see week in and week out. Very interesting. Last week, I said that this week we would prove to have better sales number. So I was wrong there. I’m gonna go one more week and see what happens with that sales number. If we don’t hit 40 or more next week, then we’re gonna start discussing ‘are we in a transition or not?‘ Still, time will tell there.

Condominiums right now, 122 condominiums on the market. That’s down 130 of last week. We had 25 condominiums come on the market. Last week, that number was 38. And we had another 26 condominiums go into contract. Last week, that number was 24. That posts five weeks in a row of very, very healthy sales for the condominium market. So, that condominium market is really picking back up, has been showing a lot more resiliency from year over year.

So, we also had 8 homes either expire, cancel, withdraw from the marketplace. Last year, that number was 18. And we had 13 homes reduce their price. Last year at this time, very interesting, 33 homes reduced their price. Again, this week was 13.

So, total-total, from South San Francisco City to Redwood City, single-family homes and condominiums, inventory is 280, up from 279.

Last year at this time, that number was 416, which represented a new 2020 peak. It was the first time we crossed over the 400-marker since 2012. We’re talking last year — 416 was the first time we went over the 400-market since 2012. In 2019, the total-total number was 327 which also represented a new 2019 peak, very interesting. But then in October it reached a 336, which was the total peak number for 2019. And then the 2018 number, was 306. Again, today, we’re at 280. And for 2021, so far our peak total-total inventory number is 307. Again, here we are at 280.

So 2021, here we are in September, market is moving very, very, very good. We got some good inventory. Condominium market is starting to shrink, very interesting. We may see a bump in October. That’s one of the things we’re watching. And we’re also watching our sale number in the single-family homes. Is it gonna stay under 40, or are we gonna finally start seeing that number we like to see week in and week out? So only time will tell, but some very interesting data is gonna be coming our way for us to be watching. And then, ultimately, it tells us where we’re headed into 2022.

At the moment, with 280 total-total, this continues. We stay 300 — if we even hit 305 — again 307 is our peak number for 2021 — if we even bust through that, and then still come down, it’s going to mean that the 2022 year is gonna start off yet again, really, really strong for the sellers.

So, if you’re thinking of selling your home, now we know is a great time. Buyers, interest rates are still very favorable, we’ve got some inventory for you to look at. So, let’s go out there and make this happen.

Thanks for listening, have a great day, and I’ll talk to you next week.