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Monday Morning Market Minute – October 9th, 2023

Real Estate Update – Mid Peninsula

Dan Gilmartin reviews the weekly home inventory numbers.

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Hi this is Dan Gilmartin, part of the Gilmartin Group, real estate company in Burlingame, California. October 9th 2023, with your Columbus Day Monday Morning Market Minute.

Okay, single-family inventory from South San Francisco to Redwood City right now is 213. That’s up from 210 of last week. And last year this time, that number was 256. In 2021, 167. In 2020, 241. And then the 2019 number, 218. Again, here we are at 213. And the 2018 number is 238. But again, it’s very interesting to see how we’re hovering up, and down, and around the 2019 numbers. We had 46 homes come on the market. That’s more than last week’s 38. And we only had 24 homes go into contract. That’s a low number for 2023. We’ve been hovering in the 30s, mid-30s, higher-30s seems to be a good number for 2023. You know, normally we like to see 40, but still, 24 so that number’s down. The average days on market, though, for those 24 homes that went into contract — this is a good number — 19 and a half days. Very positive number there.

Condominiums, townhomes, 135 on the market. That’s up from 130 of last week. Last year this time, that number was 147. In 2021, 142. In 2020, 200. In 2019, that number was 118. And the 2018 number was 90. So again, here we are at 135 on the market, with 16 come on the market. That’s lower than last week’s 22. And again, a disappointing number here, only 7 went into contract. Last week that number was 13. In 2023, I’ve been saying that, you know, in the teens, highest teens or higher, obviously, is a good number.

We also had 12 homes either expire, cancel, or withdraw from the marketplace. Last week that number was 19. And we had 16 price reductions. Last week that number was 28.

So total-total, from South San Francisco to Redwood City, single-family homes, condominiums and townhomes, inventory is 348. That’s up from 340, and represents a new 2023 peak of inventory. The last three weeks we were at 340. You know, we were just hovering right there, right at 340, which was very interesting to watch. So this week we broke over the 340 number to 348, which represents the 2023 peak. And I do think this will represent the 2023 peak number for the entire year. Typically we’re gonna start going down right about now. It could bump up one more week or two more weeks, but then we’re gonna start rolling in November and December, and the holiday starts picking up. So, also, what does that mean? We’re rolling into buyer season. So any homes on the market right now that have been on for a while, now is the time to start negotiating. Get that home. So you can get in for the holidays, before Thanksgiving, before Christmastime, before the end of the year. So that’s where we’re headed here. I do think the inventory, this will be it, and then we’ll start contracting. And we wanna watch, of course, interest rates, and we wanna watch the jobs market as well. But right now, homes are selling, and the ones that are selling, 19 and a half days on the market, that a positive number.

Thanks for listening. Have a great day. And I’ll talk to you next week.

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