Real Estate Update – Mid Peninsula
Dan Gilmartin reviews the weekly home inventory numbers.
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Hi, this is Dan Gilmartin, part of the Gilmartin Group Real Estate Company in Burlingame, California, October 3rd 2022, with your with your fourth quarter Monday Morning Market Minute.
Okay. Single-family inventory from South San Francisco to Redwood City right now is 253. That is down from 263 of last week. Last year this time, that number was 159. 2021, 129. 2019, 218. And the 2018 number was 292. Average days on market for the current single-family homes on the market is 40 1/2 days. That’s up slightly from the high 30s that we’ve been seeing in the past weeks. We had 40 homes come on the market. Last week, that number was 49. That number seems to be dropping. And we had 24 homes go into contract. Not that 40-number we like to see a week in a week out. Last week, that number was 29, and the average days on market for the homes that went into contract is 21 days. That’s kind of about where we’ve been in the last several weeks.
Condominiums right now, 160 condominiums on the market. That’s down slightly from 162 of last week. Last year, this time, that number was 129. In 2020 that number was 193. In 2019, 118. And the 2018 number was 84. Again, here we’re at 160. We had 17 condominiums come to the market. That’s a low number. Last week, that number was 32. And we had 10 condominiums go into contract. Last week the number was 18. Couple weeks ago the number was 10. Again, that’s a lower number.
We also had 33 homes either expire, cancel, withdraw from the marketplace, and again, another high number: 40 price reductions. That is literally — I was looking in past years as I was doing the other numbers. That’s double what we normally see this time of year, in past years.
So total-total, from South San Francisco to Redwood City, single-family homes and condominiums, inventory is 413, down from 425 here in the first Monday of October. Last year, this number was 288. In 2020, that number was 422. In 2019, that number was 336, and the 2018 number was 331.
So interesting that the 2020 number was 422. Here we are at 413. Now we have seen in the past that October tends to produce a peak of inventory. Right now. 2022 peak inventory total-total is 464. Here we are 413.
Are we gonna go test this peak like we’ve done in the past in the October to 464 or higher? Or are we gonna continue to go down? Here we have only 40 single-family homes come to the market. A low number and only 17 condominium-townhome listings come to the market. That’s very interesting. Here, as the market is shifting and changing, sellers are saying, I’m not gonna put my home on the market.
In terms of supply and demand that is a natural first step, if that’s where we are in the leg of this, meaning, suppliers stop supplying. Inventory starts going down. Demand stays steady or goes up and you see what happens. So this is what we’re watching. Are we going up in inventory? Are we staying down? Are we going down? If we continue to go down and we enter into 2023, inventory would be extremely low, like it’s been year after year after year. Very interesting.
Now, jobs is a big part of the conversation in how all this is gonna stay together. So these are the kind of things we’re watching. Thanks for listening. Have a great day and I’ll talk to you next week.