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Monday Morning Market Minute – October 24th, 2022

Real Estate Update – Mid Peninsula

Dan Gilmartin reviews the weekly home inventory numbers.

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Hi, I’m Dan Gilmartin, part of the Gilmartin Group Real Estate Company in Burlingame, California, October 24th 2022, with your with your Monday Morning Market Minute.

Okay, single-family inventory from South San Francisco to Redwood City right now is 261. That is up from 253 of last week. Last year at this time, that number was 145. 2020, 236. 2019, 207. And the 2018 number was 249. Again, here we are at 261. We had 38 homes come on the market. That’s lower than last week’s 43. And we had 22 homes go into contract. That’s lower than last week’s 27. The average days on market for the single-family homes that went into contract is 21 1/2 days. Also, what I thought interesting and I brushed over was the average days on market for the active single-family homes right now is 48 days.

Condominiums right now, 147 condominiums on the market. That’s slightly down from last week’s 149. Last year, this time, that number was 137. 2020, that number was 202. 2019, that number was 127. And the 2018 number was 95. We had 15 condominiums come on the market. Lower than last week’s 24. And 11 condominiums, townhouses went into contract. Last week, that number was 11. And the average days on market for the condominium, townhouses that went into contract was 42 1/2 days.

We had 13 homes either expire, cancel, or withdraw from the marketplace. And 42 price reductions.

So total-total, from South San Francisco to Redwood City, single-family homes and condominiums, inventory is 408. Up from 402 of last week. Now that is typical and that has happened years in the past where we actually went up in inventory on this week. You’ve been hearing me say “Hey, we’re watching if it’s going to continue to go up. Or are we gonna continue to go down here for the rest of the year?”

Now, what does not happen is inventory going up next week and throughout the end of the year. Meaning, it would be a first in a long, long time, that if we watch the inventory go from 408 up into the end of the year. So, typically, you go back far, far data, we always contract our inventory from here forward to December 31st.

Last year, inventory this time was 296. 2020, inventory was 438. Again, we’re here at 408. And 2019, 334. And the 2018 number was 344.

So, we’re gonna watch. What’s inventory gonna do? I’m gonna say it’s going to contract. Typically, we’re gonna contract 60%, 70% for January 2nd, 2023. That would put us around 142 homes on the market on the first Monday of 2023. Here we are at 408.

So, that’s what we’re gauging. If we continue to build inventory, that will indicate an absolute market shift. I don’t think that’s gonna happen. But we’re gonna obviously see, I think, is inventory is gonna continue to contract to about 60% to 70% of this 408 number. Which leaves us with extremely low inventory. And you’re gonna find that, you think the market is slowing down, actually, it’s not. It’s gonna be a lot hotter than you will be thinking.

So that’s what we’re going here. Thanks for listening, have a great day and I’ll talk to you next week.


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