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Monday Morning Market Minute – May 16th, 2022

Real Estate Update – Mid Peninsula

Dan Gilmartin reviews the weekly home inventory numbers.

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Hi, this is Dan Gilmartin, part of the Gilmartin Group Real Estate Company in Burlingame, California, May 16th 2022, with your Monday Morning Market Minute.

Okay, single-family inventory from South San Francisco to Redwood City right now is 168. That’s way up from 139 of last week. We had 72 homes come on the market. That’s the most single-family homes come on the market in a single week in 2022. Last week, that number was 51. 51 is a big number, 72 is a very, very big number. Last year, we hit the 72-number on July 19th. The week of July 19th last year, we had 72 homes come on the market. That’s very interesting point that — we’re like two months ahead to see a number like that. And it’s one of the higher numbers that we normally will see throughout the year. So I wanted to point that out. We had 31 homes go into contract. Last week that number was 34. That’s two weeks in a row where we have not hit the 40-number or more, and if you might recall, weeks past, we were in the 50s. So we’ve come from the 50s, homes going into contract, down into the low 30s.

Condominiums right now, 138 condominiums on the market. Last year at this time, that number was 121. We had 43 condominiums come on the market. Last week, that number was 37. And we had 17 condominiums go into contract. Again, teens are a healthy number. But we’re getting used to the 20s. Last week, that number was 28.

We also had 5 homes either expire, cancel, or withdraw from the marketplace. Pretty normal. And we had 14 price reductions. Also very normal.

And here are a couple more numbers I want to start watching for us. Days on market and transactions fallen through, TFT.

Average days on market for the single-family homes last week, for all the homes that went on pending was 22. That’s up slightly — I haven’t been telling you that number — but it’s up slightly. Not alarming. But up slightly.

And in the condominium days on market average was 16. That’s up also slightly.

And then transactions fallen through. I want to see. We just had a huge number of homes come on the market. Inventory just jumped. Are we having homes fall out of escrow? The answer is we had 1.

So moving forward here, I’m gonna start for you days on market, for both categories. And transactions fallen through. Right now 1. Very, very typical. I actually really have a nothing burger at the moment there.

So, total-total, from South San Francisco to Redwood City, single-family homes and condominiums, inventory is 306. That’s up from 253 of last week. Last year at this time, that number was 272. 2020, that number was 254. 2019, that number was 268. And then 2018, that number was 181. Again, here we are at 306.

Last year, July 19th, we hit a peak total-total number at 309. Here we are in mid-May here, 306. And it’s also the first time we’ve gone over the 300-marker in 2022. So we’re gonna watch the days on market. We’re gonna see if the inventory is gonna continue to rise. Are we gonna get shoot over to 400? Again, if we get above — if we get up to 600 or more, then this market really starts to change. Starts to change from a seller-centrist market to a buyer-centrist market. So we’re still long ways away from there. But that’s what we want to monitor. And if transactions start falling through on a high level going from 1 — if we start getting some big numbers — that also will be a leading indicator if this market’s starting to change on us.

All in all, still 306 homes on the market, total-total, out of 90,000+ homes from South City to Redwood City, is still very, very low. So, if you’re still thinking of selling your home, might want to jump in the game like we have these other 72 single-family home sellers do. Interest rates, as we know, are potentially going up. Right now though, if you’re a buyer, get in today’s rate.

Hey, thanks for listening, have a great day. And I’ll talk to you next week.

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