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Monday Morning Market Minute – June 24th, 2024

Real Estate Update – Mid Peninsula

Dan Gilmartin reviews the weekly home inventory numbers.

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So you wanna know what’s going on with the housing market on the mid-Peninsula? Well, look no further and welcome to the Monday Morning Market Minute, where I go over the latest inventory numbers of actives, sales, pendings, and days on market. Hi, I’m Dan Gilmartin, part of the Gilmartin Group, real estate company in Burlingame, California. And let’s go!

Okay, single-family inventory from South San Francisco to Redwood City right now is 184. That’s way up from last week’s 164. Last year at this time, that number was 193. In 2022, that number was 262. In 2021, 163. In 2020, 195. In 2019, 219. And the 2018 number was 185. Now, in other past Monday Morning Market Minutes, I do talk about the previous years’ inventory, but this is very interesting. This is the week of peak inventory. Over the last 6 years, one, two, three, four of those years have the exact same peak, year-to-date type of number. And what’s interesting is, in 2018 that number was 185. That was a peak for 2018. Here we are at 184. Last year’s 193, that was a peak for year-to-date, In 2022, that 267, that was a peak. Very interesting. So this is the peak of inventory week for, and(?) we generally have. June and July is when we have our peak inventory, and this is one of those weeks. Very important.

We had 54 homes come on the market. That’s much more than last week’s 41. And we had 28 single-family homes go into contract. That’s not the number we like to see. Last week’s number was 37. 28’s one of the lower numbers we’ve seen in well over a month. Out of the 28 homes, the days on market for those homes is up at 19 and a half days. We did have 4 homes that took longer than normal that did skew that number. But 19 and a half days for all those 28 is a higher number than we’re used to.

Condominium and townhomes right now, we have 192 on the market. That’s up from 180 of last week. And, naturally, a new peak inventory number for the townhome, condominium market. Last year, that number was 114. Again, here we are at 192. In 2022, that number was 170. That was a peak number. In 2021, 119. Amazing. In 2020, 97. Again, here we are at 192. But that 97, a peak number for 2020. In 2019, 84. And 2018, 59. What a difference that is, from 59 to 192. We had 27 condominiums, townhomes come on the market. Last week that number was 29. And we only had 12 go into contract. We like to see being in the teens, high-teens or of course, even higher. So 12 is not a number we like to see. Last week, that number was 15. We had 3 condominiums that closed out of that 12. Their average days on market, this is actually some inspiring news for the condominium market: 10 days, days on the market. 10 days. That’s much lower than what we’ve been seeing, which is more like 32 days in previous weeks. Tha townhomes that went into contract, the 9 that went in, this is a different number. 21 and a half days on the market. That number is way up for townhome. So, again that’s two weeks in a row. A lot of capitulation going on the townhome market.

We had 14 homes either expire, cancel, withdraw from the marketplace. That’s pretty average. And we had 19 price reductions. That sounds like a high number. Actually, that’s more of an average number for right about now.

So, total-total, from South San Francisco to Redwood City, single-family homes, condominiums, and townhomes, inventory is 376. That’s up from 347 of last week, and you guessed it. A new peak total-total number. Last year, that number was 307. In 2020, 434. In 2021, 282. In 2020, 292. 2019, 313. And the 2018 number was, excuse me, 144. I need glasses. Anyway, here we are at 376.

We’re going in to July. We’re in peak inventory. It’s gonna be interesting to see where our market’s going right now. If this continues, we’re gonna be pulling back a little bit. Generally when people are going on vacation, sales do tend to… Well actually, we have the sales, but the inventory does slow down as homeowners go off to vacation. So, we’re watching inventory very closely here as we get through next week, July and we pass 4th of July. And then when we get beyond that, where are we going? Inventory gonna continue to go up and get it over 400? Or is it gonna stay here, level off around here, and then start going back down. That’s what we’re watching.

Thanks for listening. Have a great day. And I’ll talk to you next week.


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