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Monday Morning Market Minute – July 12th, 2021

Real Estate Update – Mid Peninsula

Dan Gilmartin reviews the weekly home inventory numbers.

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Video Transcript

Hi, this is Dan Gilmartin, part of the Gilmartin Group Real Estate Company in Burlingame, California, July 12th 2021, with your Monday Morning Market Minute.

Okay, single-family inventory from South San Francisco to Redwood City right now is 164. That’s a humongous jump from last week’s super exciting 128. We had 71 homes come on the market last week. That’s the most homes we’ve had come on the market in 2021 in a week’s span. So, that’s just a massive number. Last week, that number was 32. And we also had only, only, 19 homes go into contract. That’s a fall of the cliff from last week’s superb 55. Last year at this time, that number was 31. Now we did come off the 4th of July holiday, so there’s a little bit of that going on mid-summer. So here we have a massive amount of properties come on the market, perfect for buyers. And low sale number which is very interesting. I do think that will show that the next week, that number is gonna be much much higher.

Condominiums right now, 128 condominiums on the market. That’s way up from 108 of last week. We had 43 condominiums, town-homes come on the market. That’s one of the largest numbers for 2021. And we had 15 condominiums go into contract. That’s right down the middle of where we like to see right there.

Also, we had 16 homes either expire, cancel or withdraw from the marketplace. And we had 16 price reductions. Last year at this time, we had 30 price reductions. Again, year over year, quite a different atmosphere. Last year at this time, there were still a lot more unknowns, hence a lot of price reductions but 16, a much lower number.

So, total-total, from South San Francisco to Redwood City, single-family homes and condominiums, inventory is 292, way up as you could expect from 232 of last week. And 292 does mark a new peak of total-total inventory from South San Francisco to Redwood City, beating the 282 number back in June 28, I think that was. So very very interesting. Is this the peak for 2021? Again, I always say that only time will tell.

But on the peak conversation, I did pull out some old notes. Let me run you back some of the past years of peak total-total inventory. Let me go all the way back to 2010. In 2010, get this: the total-total number was 933. Then in 2011, 841. 2012, 403. 2013, 336. 2014, 289. 2015, 256. 2016, 296. 2017, 233. 2018, 344. And yet, that was a major peak for a great sellers market that year. 2019, 313. Last year, the anomaly, 441. So here we are today at 292. Are we gonna go over 300? Are we gonna get into the 400s? That would be a definite market shift. My prediction is: no, we’re not. It’s gonna be very interesting: are we gonna see something like 2016, where we went from 296 down to 233, and punching into that 2018 super hot sellers market? Only time will tell.

Thanks for listening, have a great day and I will talk to you next week.

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