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Monday Morning Market Minute – January 8th, 2024

Real Estate Update – Mid Peninsula

Dan Gilmartin reviews the weekly home inventory numbers.

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Hi this is Dan Gilmartin, part of the Gilmartin Group, real estate company in Burlingame, California. January 8th 2024, with your 1st Monday Morning Market Minute of the year. Last week, we posted the 2023 recap. I hope you got to see that. The crew did a great job putting that together.

Okay, single-family inventory from South San Francisco to Redwood City right now is 78. Last week, the first Monday of 2024, that number was 60. Last year this time, that number was 120. In 2021, 45. In 2021, 136. In 2020, 67. 2019, 99. And 2018, 49. I’m not gonna do that every week, but I wanted to just kinda dive down that path here on the first Monday. The average of those six years is 86. Here we are at 78. We had 15 homes come on the market, that’s low. And we had 7 go into contract. That’s average for this time of year.

Condominiums and townhomes, 80. Last week, first Monday of the year, was 68. Last year this time, that number was 91. In 2022, that number was 57. 2021, that number was 127. In 2020, 49. 2019, 70. And the 2018 number, 20. Again, here we are at 80. And the six-year average on that was 69. So a little bit above the six-year average at our 80, with 15 come on the market — townhome, condominiums. That’s average. And we had 6 go into contract. That’s also average for this time of year.

Here’s a very high number: we had 21 homes either expire, cancel, withdraw from the marketplace. That’s a very high number. And we had 5 price reductions. That’s a little bit lower than the average that we see this time of year.

So total-total, from South San Francisco to Redwood City, single-family homes, condominiums, and townhomes inventory is 158. Last week, the first Monday of the year, that number was 136. Here we are at 158. Last year this time, 211. In 2022, 102. 2021, 263. 2020, 116. 2019, 169. And the 2018 number, 69. The six-year average on that was 165. Here we are at 158. So little bit lower than the six-year average.

Market is really getting ready to take off right now. I wrote down a few things here. We’ve got a strong jobs report that came out recently. Interest rates have eased and are going to continue to ease. Inventory, as I’ve gone over, is very low. And we’re in an election year. So putting all of this together, I’m telling you right now if you don’t know this, but this market is getting ready to- it’s pent up. We’ve got buyers out there. Interest rates are coming down. I’ve already been showing property in the first two weeks, and there’s really nothing to show, so this market is really getting ready to take off. So sellers, sooner is better than later. Be the first one that come on the market. Meaning if you’re sailing a sail race, sailboat race, I always like to say the sailor puts their sail up first usually wins the race.

Buyers, right now, today, there’s confusion on the marketplace. People are not sure what’s gonna- you know, if they’re not in the know, they don’t know that this market is getting ready to take off, make your offers now on a home that’s been on the market for a while, that maybe was on, you know, last month through the holidays, still on the market. Now. Today. This week. Maybe next week is the time to make your offers and get a great deal because I think this market is gonna show us all we’re gonna have appreciation happening here. It’s gonna be moderate, maybe high, certainly moderate. It’s not leveling, it’s not going down. We’re going up.

Thanks for listening. Have a great day. And I’ll talk to you next week.


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