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Monday Morning Market Minute – April 22nd, 2024

Real Estate Update – Mid Peninsula

Dan Gilmartin reviews the weekly home inventory numbers.

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Hi this is Dan Gilmartin, part of the Gilmartin Group, real estate company in Burlingame, California. April 22nd 2024, with your Monday Morning Market Minute.

Okay. Single-family inventory from South San Francisco to Redwood City right now is 164. That is up from 148 of last week. Last year at this time, that number was 167. I should say, 164 is a new peak of inventory for single-family home for 2024. And last year at this time, that number was 167. Here we are at 164. But, the reason why I’m bringing last year up like I normally do, but I want to talk about 2022, that number was 137. In 2021, that number was 137. In 2020, 157. In 2019, 147. And in 2018, that number was 162. And again, here we are at 164.

And in 2021, we reached 164 homes on the market in June. Now typically, June and July is when we see our peak inventory number, and then sometimes re-test that high number in October. So I just wanted to look back on 2021. The number, this week was 137, and it was June when we hit 164. So very interesting.

We had 57 homes come on the market. That’s a healthy amount of inventory to come on the market. Last week, that number was 40. And we had 32 homes go into contract. That, it seems to be a good number for 2024. Last week, that number was 32. Back in 2018 though, when we hit 162 homes on the market during this time, we were in the 40 to 42 homes would sell per week.

So we have not touched that 40 number in 2024. It used to be something we’ve monitored, 40, how close we were to 40. But 32 does seem to be a very good number for 2024. The days on market for those 32, the homes that went into contract: nine days. So that shows the velocity, the speed of the market. You know, single-family homes are selling quickly.

Condominiums, townhomes right now, we have 145 on the market. That’s actually down from 146 of last week. Last year this time, though, that number was 106. And in 2022, the number was 102. 2021, 115. In ’20, that number was 67. In 2019, 73. And in 2018, that number was 43. So, 145 right now is a big number for townhome, condominiums inventory. And both numbers here, the 164 and the 145 seem to be more of a June-July number that we’ve seen in the past. So inventory is up right there. We had 32 condominiums, townhomes come on the market. Last week, that number was 29. But we had 19 go into contract. That’s a healthy number for 2024. Last week, that number was 13. Average days on market, though for those 19 that waent into contract: 32 days.

So there’s a big disparity between the single-family home market right now, and the condominium, townhome market, which is certainly within the days on market. Interest rate, I would assume, would play into that role, as interest rates are up at the moment. Yet, here we are with really healthy sales. We had 9 homes either expire, cancel or withdraw from marketplace. And we had 12 price reductions. That’s not a real big number, 12. You’d think maybe that might be a bigger number right now with interest rates, but this is not true. Low days on market for single-family homes and in higher inventory.

That’s the story right now. Inventory is about- you know, we’re a couple months ahead of schedule in years past right now. Very interesting. So total-total from South San Francisco to Redwood City, condominiums, townhomes, single-family homes inventory is 309. That’s up from 294 of last week. First time crossing over the 300 marker for 2024, and also represents a 2024 peak of inventory.

In 2021, the high total-total number was 309. I looked back to see what was some of the high, you know, total highest inventory for the year. In 2021, we reached 309. That was as high as we got in total inventory. Last year though, at this time that number was 273. In 2022, that number was 239. In 2021, that number was 252. 2020, 224. In 2019, 220. In 2018, 205. Very interesting. So the single-family home inventory in 2018 and in 2024 are the same basically. But the big, big difference is the condominium, townhome market, where today we’re at 145. And in 2018, that number was 43.

So hey, market is definitely- the inventory’s up. Surprisingly in a way to me. I mean, single-family homes are selling fast. But in the big picture, inventory is up, interest rates are up, and yet we’re having healthy sales on both sides. Days on market are very different between the townhome, condo market and the single-family home market. So if you’re thinking of selling your home, we’re watching this inventory. It’s up, in the macro picture. Again, back-macro for our market, it’s still very, very low. But when you compare it to years in the past, inventory is up. So if you’re thinking of selling home, sooner is better than later. And we’re going to be watching.

So we’re going to go over 200 homes for sale here in the next couple of weeks. That would be, very interesting to watch and see how the interest rates might play into effect on that. Or are we going to kind of level off here and kind of stay right around the 150 to 170 marker and as we go through the summer months. Again, and then sometimes we re-test inventory, peak inventory in October.

So that’s what we’re watching. But if you’re thinking of selling, now is a great time. Buyers, condominium and townhome, there’s certainly an opportunity there. And if you’re- while buying single-family homes, if you’ve been out there, you already know it. It’s no secret, homes are selling fast.

Thanks for listening. Have a great day. And I’ll talk to you next week.

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